Stocks to open lower on slowdown worries

Just a look at a graph of the Australian sharemarket lately? It's pretty much a flat line since September 2009. There have been bursts of life, but each was followed by an equally swift trip south before anyone could get enthusiastic about investing again.

Take Friday. The S&P/ASX200 recouped early losses to muscle 15.3 points higher to a finish of 4711.4. Nice work. But it closed at 4719.90 on September 24 2009.

Yet this lack of movement has come during a time when we have experienced perhaps the biggest mining boom this country has ever seen, record terms of trade, record low import prices for many goods thanks in part to the soaring Aussie dollar, and a relatively enviable economic performance compared to many countries around the globe.

Advertisement: Story continues below

On paper this would seem a heady combination for shares - but the market has been going nowhere fast.

It comes after US stocks ended the week mired in red on Friday as investors shrugged off US inflation and consumer confidence reports and weighed disappointing company earnings and a firmer dollar.

The surge in the Australian dollar also means that overseas investors are potential sellers of local stocks at the moment, because in US-dollar terms they are sitting on big profits.

Dr Oliver says that during the past 12 months the Dow is up 17.7 per cent and the local S&P/ASX200 just 1.2 per cent. "But for the US investor in Australian stocks, our market has risen 19.7 per cent in US-dollar terms, reflecting a 1 per cent or so local gain and an 18 per cent run in the Australian dollar - so the US investor has made good money in that time.

In economic news on Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release data on new motor vehicles sales for April as well as housing finance figures for March.

In companies news DuluxGroup Ltd will release its half year financial results in Melbourne on Monday.

Meanwhile in the Asia zone, Japanese stocks will likely remain under pressure next week after banking shares dived on a suggestion financial institutions will have to waive loans to Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), dealers said Friday.

Upcoming GDP figures are expected to show the Japanese economy has slipped back into recession.

On Friday the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed up 15.3 points, or 0.33 per cent, at 4,711.4 points, while the broader All Ordinaries index had added 10.7 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 4,787.3 points.