Forecasting Biden’s Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia

The day before John F. Kennedy’s inauguration in 1961, he met with an outgoing President Eisenhower. According to the Pentagon Papers, “Eisenhower said with considerable emotion that Laos was the key to the entire area of Southeast Asia, that we should make every effort to persuade member nations of SEATO … to defend the freedom of Laos. President-elect Kennedy … asked if the situation seemed to be approaching a climax. Eisenhower stated that the entire proceeding was extremely confused.”

If, two months ago, a similar briefing had been given to a President-elect Biden by an outgoing President Trump, the details 60 years on would have been different, but the tone, tenor, and message strikingly similar. The main difference would have been a shift in focus from Laos—and by extension, Indochina—in 1961 to Thailand on the mainland and to the Philippines in maritime Southeast Asia. 

That is, a shift from countries six decades ago whose governments the U.S. was propping up to those today with which it has increasingly uncertain relations. And, of course, two weeks after that recent imaginary briefing, Myanmar would have been added to the list overnight.

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