Dislike of Abbott cost Libs election

Australian Election Study, based on a detailed survey conducted immediately after the election in August, found that voters' dislike of the Opposition Leader added more than 1 per cent to Labor's vote.

Julia Gillard's unpopularity also benefited the other side of politics but it increased the Coalition's vote by only 0.2 per cent.

The net 0.9 per cent shift to Labor attributable to leadership was enough to keep Labor in power in an election where it finished with 50.12 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote and an equal number of seats to the Coalition (not including West Australian National Tony Crook, who sits as an independent).

The Coalition gained 0.7 per cent by being seen as better economic managers but this was almost cancelled out by the 0.6 per cent benefit Labor gained from the education issue.

survey asked voters to rate leaders on a scale from zero, representing strong dislike, to 10 for strong liking.

Although Ms Gillard at the August election would have expected to be still enjoying a honeymoon after replacing Kevin Rudd two months earlier, she rated just below neutral at 4.9.

This compared with Mr Rudd's score of 6.3 at the 2007 election. Ms Gillard's standing was slightly worse than the 5.0 rating given to leader Mark Latham at the 2004 election.

But Ms Gillard was significantly less unpopular than Mr Abbott, who rated at 4.3 - one of the lowest scores recorded for a major party leader in the survey, which has been held after each election since 1987.

It was even below the 4.4 for Paul Keating at the 1996 election, which he lost to John Howard in a landslide.

"You could say that Gillard was doing her best to lose the election but Abbott trumped her," says Professor Bean.

Mr Rudd, with a score of 5.0 at this election, outpointed both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader.

But Mr Abbott did outrate the Greens' Bob Brown and the Nationals' Warren Truss, both on 4.1 and Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan on 4.0.

Australia's first female prime minister benefited from the support of women, with 44 per cent of them voting Labor, compared with 36 per cent of men.

Men favoured the Coalition by 50 per cent to 41 per cent.

Ms Gillard outpointed Mr Abbott on each of nine qualities that voters in the survey said described the leaders well.

She was seen as providing stronger leadership and being more intelligent, compassionate, competent, sensible, knowledgeable, inspiring, honest and trustworthy.

But her overthrow of Mr Rudd harmed her, with 74 per cent of voters saying they disapproved of the way the Labor Party handled the change.

"All other things being equal, the analysis suggests that, had the Coalition gone to the 2010 Australian federal election with a leader who was viewed more favourably across the electorate, the outcome probably would have been a narrow victory for the Liberals and Nationals," professors Bean and McAllister write in a forthcoming book.

ALP gay marriage debate falls flat

Victorian Labor Party had been set to debate the motion on Saturday but its conference came to an abrupt end when the meeting was deemed to be three people short of the required numbers.

The state party had already backed same-sex marriage at its 2009 conference but the latest move would have gone a step further, calling on the ALP national conference in December to incorporate support for gay marriage in the party's policy position.

Hundreds of Labor faithful packed a Monash University hall to hear Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who opposes same-sex marriage, and state Labor leader Daniel Andrews, who supports it, talk about the state of the party.

But numbers had dwindled by Saturday afternoon and debate on the marriage equality issue and more than 20 other urgency motions never went ahead because there were only 147 delegates in the hall when 150 were required for a quorum.

Secretary of the ALP's policy committee on gay and lesbian issues, Jamie Gardiner, said the developments did not change the fact that the Victorian branch had already backed marriage equality.

"Today's motion was simply to reiterate that support and to echo the South Australian branch's resolution in support, calling on the national conference to support marriage equality," Mr Gardiner said.

"I can only assume that elements in the party who knew they would lose engineered a walkout to bring the conference to a premature close."

Other motions had supported same-sex adoption and condemned Ms Gillard for her asylum-seeker deal with Malaysia.

ALP state secretary Noah Carroll said the Victorian branch backed Ms Gillard.

"The prime minister is her own person, everyone understands that, but she has the full support of the party in Victoria and presumably also the federal caucus."

In her first address as prime minister to a Labor Party conference in her home state, Ms Gillard used her keynote speech to push the case for a carbon tax, but left before the urgency motions were to be debated.

She said was proud of Labor's record in Victoria, where it was in power for 11 years before November's election defeat.

We've seen a premier paralysed by indecision, frozen solid, unable to make the hard decisions that Victoria and Victorians need," the opposition leader said.

Internal ructions over the Broadmeadows by-election in February again resurfaced with a motion put to the conference criticising the way Frank McGuire was chosen and calling for changes to the pre-selection process.

Mr McGuire, who ultimately retained the seat vacated by former premier John Brumby for Labor, was selected by the party's national executive after a bitter internal factional brawl and a bloc of unions unsuccessfully challenged his pre-selection in court.

The motion, however, was referred to the party's rules committee for further debate at the October state conference.

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Arnold Schwarzenegger: Is his career going

The mother of four, 55, is said to have asked her family's housekeeper, Mildred Baena, 50, if her son was fathered by Arnold Schwarzenegger.

During the dramatic showdown, Ms Baena broke down and confessed, according to Radar Online.

Schwarzenegger, 63, came clean about the affair only after Shriver told him she knew the truth about his 13-year secret, insiders said.

"Maria has suspected this for a long time and she asked the housekeeper," a source said.

"The housekeeper admitted it. Maria then went to Arnold and he confessed."

It was also reported Schwarzenegger showered Ms Baena's family with money during her time in their employ.

The Terminator star paid for a lavish party for the daughter of Mildred's sister Maria, who also worked for the Schwarzeneggers.

But now Schwarzenegger has bowed to the inevitable fallout from his paternity scandal, with news surfacing Thursday that he has pulled out of all of his film projects. But is this a temporary crisis management ploy, with the hope that the scandal will quickly blow over? Or is it a tacit admission that the media will be on red alert for years to come, looking for more garish skeletons in the Schwarzenegger closet?

I suspect that the initial reason for backing off from any career moves is based on crisis management, since for now, it would be impossible for Schwarzenegger to do any kind of career promotion without being forced to answer all sorts of uncomfortable questions about his personal life. But as time goes on, you have to wonder if there's any kind of career niche for Schwarzenegger to occupy.

It was already pretty obvious that the Gubernator was too old and out of fashion to play a serious action hero, especially since the one action genre he could plausibly occupy -- the leader of an over-the-hill gang -- had already been thoroughly mined by Sly Stallone in "The Expendables." But having Schwarzenegger playing a washed-up horse trainer with a complicated relationship with an 11-year-old boy who suddenly turns up in his life -- which is the story of "Cry Macho," the film he'd been attached to star in -- seems way too close for comfort as well.

The more you study Schwarzenegger's options, the more it looks like he should find himself a new, less visible line of work until the media can work through the cycle that begins with real reporting and outrage and often ends in tawdry fascination, cynical wisecracking and jaded boredom. But as for that CAA-inspired "once a movie star, always a movie star" business, I can only say: Mel Gibson? Nicolas Cage? Russell Crowe?

I know Yogi Berra said it ain't over till it's over, but in showbiz, when it's over, its over for good.

Premier accused of 'tantrum' over iron ore royalties

Mr Colin Barnett has announced plans to increase the royalty rate paid on a certain type of iron ore in a move expected to earn the State Government $2 billion dollars over three years.

The Commonwealth has warned that, if the plan goes ahead, it will be forced to cut WA's share of GST revenue.

WA Labor Senator, Chris Evans, has accused Mr Barnett of being hypocritical because he was a vocal opponent of the Federal Government's plans to impose a Minerals Resource Rent Tax.

"The current tantrums quite frankly do him no credit," Senator Evans said.

"This Federal Government is absolutely committed to supporting infrastructure in Western Australia but you cannot have it both ways, you can't double dip."

The increase in state royalties will blow a $2 billion hole in the Federal budget and the Commonwealth says WA's share of the GST pie will have to be cut as a result.

The Federal Member for Perth, Stephen Smith, says Mr Barnett was well aware of that when he made the decision to increase royalties.

"When a state premier does that, he does it with his eyes open and he knows that there are bound to be consequences," Mr Smith said.

"Now we need to work our way very carefully through those consequences, they're consequences caused by Colin Barnett."

WA's Deputy Premier, Kim Hames, says the Commonwealth should stay out of WA's business.

The increase is expected to net the WA Government $2billion over three years.

Under the minerals resources rent tax deal, the Federal Government must credit mining companies with mineral royalties they pay the states, meaning the Gillard Government stands to lose $2 billion under the new WA arrangement.

Ms Gillard said in Adelaide the decision which ran contrary to the Coalition's campaign against higher mining taxes would end up costing WA in terms of GST revenue and infrastructure. She said Premier Colin Barnett had scored an ''own goal''.

''He knows how GST works and he knows that under the current system, that this means the GST money will be moved away from Western Australia,'' she said, referring to determinations by the independent Commonwealth Grants Commission.

''They will also lose infrastructure funds that would have flowed from the minerals resources rent tax.''

Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey said he hoped other states followed suit. ''If other states need to increase their taxes to fund the infrastructure to cope with a transition in the economy, then so be it,'' Mr Hockey said in Mackay.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said WA's move would drive a $2billion hole through the Government's plans to return the budget to surplus.

But Ms Gillard said she remained committed to returning the federal budget to surplus by 2012-13.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said he doubted WA's tax move would net an extra $2 billion.

''It's somewhat less than that, but I'm going to get the Treasury to do the work over the weekend,'' he said yesterday.

Murder-suicide family deny custody battle

The family of a Gold Coast mother and preschooler killed in a triple homicide-suicide deny that a custody battle was at the centre of the tragedy.

Five-year-old Kyla Rogers was found dead alongside her father, 40-year old Paul Rogers, previously from Hamilton, on Monday night in a car near Casino in northern New South Wales in Australia.

Her mother, Tania Simpson, and Nelson man Anthony Way, believed to be her partner, had been found dead in a unit in Robina on the Gold Coast at about 8am the same day.

Anthony's older brother Andre left New Zealand for Australia on Wednesday to retrieve his brother's body.

Police believe Rogers stabbed Way and Simpson to death before abducting Kyla and taking her to northern NSW, where they died together from carbon monoxide poisoning in his car.

Simpson had reportedly called off her engagement to Rogers in the lead-up to the rampage.

Kyla's toddler brother was staying with his grandparents.

Australian police last week said a dispute over the custody of the children was at the centre of the tragedy.

But the Simpsons deny there was a bitter custody battle.

In a statement issued last night, the Simpson family spoke of a "loving mother who had her children's best interests at heart".

They say she was moving on with her life after separating from Rogers and was "happier than she'd ever been".

The family have released a statement thanking people for their support.

They say they cannot comprehend what happened and have asked for privacy while they grieve.

U.N. launches study:Japanese Utility Steps Down nuclear crisis

Japan's Tokyo Electric Power on Friday posted a record $15 billion loss and its under-fire president resigned to take responsibility for the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl 25 years ago.

The beleaguered utility posted an annual net loss of 1.247 trillion yen ($15 billion), the biggest ever for a non-financial Japanese firm. The company did not give an earnings forecast for the current financial year.

With compensation liabilities estimated at tens of billions of US dollars, the utility warned the "significant deterioration" in its financial position "raises substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern".

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Its heavily criticised president Masataka Shimizu resigned over the crisis at its crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, after earlier saying he would likely step down at an appropriate time.

"The public has lost confidence in nuclear power," Shimizu told a press conference. "It is the right way for the top manager to take the ultimate responsibility." Sakae Muto, head of TEPCO's nuclear division, also resigned.

Managing director Toshio Nishizawa will replace Shimizu effective after a June shareholders meeting. He said he accepted it was his "fate to lead our efforts in this difficult time," as he apologised for the emergency.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the United Nations would undertake "a U.N. system-wide study on the implications of the Fukushima accident" and present the findings at a high-level meeting on the implications of the crisis to be held during the annual U.N. General Assembly meeting in September.

The report "will address a variety of areas, including environment, health, food security, sustainable development and the nexus between nuclear safety and nuclear security," Ban said in a statement.

"It will also present system-wide views on how to improve disaster risk preparedness," he said. "In producing this study, it is my intention to highlight the need to strengthen the capacity of the relevant international organizations, particularly the IAEA, recognizing its central role."

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Yukio Amano, said on Thursday that the Japanese nuclear crisis remained very serious though there were some signs of progress.

The IAEA, the World Health Organization and the World Food Program are among the U.N. agencies that will be carrying out the study.

The earthquake and tsunami in northeast Japan in March triggered the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the worst nuclear crisis in 25 years, raising questions about the future of nuclear energy and fueling public fears about the risks of atomic power plants.

But its losses so far do not include compensation claims. Tens of thousands of people have been forced to relocate from the area around the plant, and the livelihoods of nearby farmers and fishermen have been threatened.

Tokyo Electric said it would sell off at least $7.3 billion in assets — including real estate and a stake in one of Japan’s largest telecommunications companies — to help meet compensation payments. The company’s board promised to take no pay, and other executives will return 40 to 60 percent of their paychecks.

The company also said it would not pay dividends for this fiscal year. Still, it was impossible to forecast earnings for the year, the company said.

Moody’s Japan has warned that it could downgrade its debt rating for Tokyo Electric to junk bond status.

Speaking after Tokyo Electric’s announcement, Yukio Edano, the top government spokesman, called for the company to increase efforts to squeeze out funds for compensation payments.

“This is just the start. There must be more scrutiny and more effort,” Mr. Edano said.

During the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, it became clear that Mr. Shimizu would have to go as the nuclear complex was exposed as woefully unprotected against tsunami risks.

Tokyo Electric has also come under intense criticism for its handling of the accident. Revelations this month that three of the plant’s reactors may have suffered meltdowns in the early days of the crisis have added to the furor.

Mr. Shimizu had been particularly criticized for largely disappearing from the public eye just as the crisis worsened. He checked himself into a hospital for a week after the disaster, and has rarely appeared at news conferences since.

Fake Myki survey downloads child porn

Police in Australia are warning Twitter and Facebook users not to click on a survey about a smartcard ticketing system because it's really a virus that will download child porn onto a person's computer.

The fake survey asks people about the Myki system -- a ticketing system used in Victoria for transit. It has been shared on Facebook and Twitter, as well as via e-mail.

The opening page of the link says it has been endorsed by Victoria Premier John Brumby and asks questions like, "Are you confident that the MYKI system will perform flawlessly?"

The link, in a bit.ly format, automatically downloads 45 sexually explicit images of children.

Investigators are concerned people may inadvertedly download the graphic content by clicking on the link.

Police would like to speak to anyone who has accessed the survey, but are not looking to charge people who accidentally received the pornographic images this way.

Investigators have been trying to remove the offending link.

Gillard Trumps Abbott plus carbon tax case

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has pushed the case for a carbon tax while avoiding the contentious issues of same-sex marriage and asylum seekers at the Victorian Labor Party conference.

Victoria's Labor Party is facing off with Ms Gillard by putting forward motions supporting gay marriage and same-sex adoption, and condemning her deal with Malaysia over asylum seekers at its annual conference on Saturday.

Ms Gillard, who does not support gay marriage, made no mention of those issues in her keynote speech.

Instead she continued to sell the federal government's May budget and press the case for putting a price on carbon.

In her first address as prime minister to a Labor party conference in her home state, Ms Gillard said Labor was determined to win the fight to price carbon.

"We are fighting to price carbon to tackle climate change and to build a clean energy economy which is prepared and strong," she said.

She criticised Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's stance on the climate change debate.

Ms Gillard then reprised the words of US President Barack Obama who recently mocked Mr Trump for his demands to produce a birth certificate to prove he was not born overseas.

“So let me reply to his increasingly hysterical fear campaign with President Obama's words to his nation when answering the hysteria about his birth certificate,’’ Ms Gillard said.

“We do not have time for this kind of silliness.

“We don’t have time for the politicians and shock jocks who deny the scientific conclusions of NASA and the CSIRO. We don’t have time for made-up figures and shameless fear-mongering.

“We are a nation determined to do our bit to tackle climate change and urgently needing to make a start to build the clean energy economy of the future.”

Ms Gillard’s comments follow a Galaxy Poll published in Queensland’s Courier Mail yesterday that found Labor's primary vote has crashed to 28 per cent.

Mr Abbott has also pulled in front of Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister by a strong 16 percentage point margin according to the state-based poll.

Ms Gillard's comments came after Mr Abbott this week continued his national campaign highlighting what he says will be the significant cost of the Gillard government's carbon tax.

Ms Gillard said the planet was warming dangerously and the tax's effects would not be as severe as being portrayed by the opposition.

She told delegates that she would not be buckling under the political pressure.

"Our national ethos is to have a go," she said.

"And together we will tackle climate change, price carbon, provide assistance to families and protect jobs.

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