Campbell Newman to grab Ashgrove

Survey for The Weekend Australian is the first to take the pulse of voters in the make-or-break state electorate of Ashgrove and shows that the former Brisbane lord mayor will comfortably overcome the 7.1 per cent margin of Labor incumbent and former cabinet minister Kate Jones. The swing against Anna Bligh's government is so pronounced that a 70 per cent approval rating among Ashgrove voters won't save Ms Jones, leaving Mr Newman on track to win the seat outright. He has grabbed 50 per cent of the primary vote against 37 per cent for Ms Jones.

When likely preferences are factored in, Mr Newman's two-party-preferred vote kicks him 10 points clear of the high-profile, two-term MP, who recently relinquished her position in Ms Bligh's ministry to work full-time to try to save the seat.

The two-party-preferred split, 55-45 per cent in Mr Newman's favour, broadly reflects internal LNP polling that was leaked to the Brisbane media last month.

Greens candidate Sandra Bayley, who told The Weekend Australian she was inclined to support Ms Jones over Mr Newman, has 11 per cent of the vote, slightly down on what the party polled at the last state election in 2009.

While most of her preferences will flow to Labor -- whether or not a deal is struck with the Greens to direct them -- Queensland's optional preferential voting system at the state level will cause many of them to exhaust.

The encouraging news for Ms Jones, however, is that Ashgrove voters have a greater propensity to number the ballot paper and not "just vote 1", lowering the exhaustion rate of preferences to the benefit of Labor.

Paper says the swing against Anna Bligh's government is so pronounced that a 70 per cent approval rating among Ashgrove voters won't save Ms Jones, leaving Mr Newman on track to win the seat outright with 50 per cent of the primary vote against 37 per cent for Ms Jones.

With likely preferences factored in, Mr Newman's two-party-preferred vote puts him 10 points ahead of the high-profile MP, who recently left her post in Ms Bligh's ministry to work full-time to save her seat.

Greens candidate Sandra Bayley, who has told The Weekend Australian she is likely to support Ms Jones, has 11 per cent of the vote, slightly down on what her party polled at the last state election in 2009.